Oslo electricity price forecast
Hourly price forecast for the next seven days, what it means for solar panels and a home battery in Oslo, and how close earlier forecasts came to the real auction prices.
Oslo is in the NO1 bidding zone: its wholesale price is the same across the zone. Solar output below uses Oslo's own weather forecast. All prices for zone NO1
Price forecast: next 7 days
Tomorrow's forecast is frozen at 11:05 CET, before the auction; days 2–7 at 13:35 CET, after tomorrow's prices are published. The band holds 80% of outcomes when the model is well calibrated.
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Solar and battery plan
Your system and usage against the price forecast: when to run appliances, when the battery should charge from the grid or store solar, and when to use it. Prices are the published auction price where known, otherwise the forecast.
Calculating…
Recommendations from forecasts, not guarantees: prices and solar output can differ. Taxes and fees use the defaults for the zone unless you change them. Not financial advice.
Forecasts against real prices
Every forecast is frozen before the auction and scored once the real price is known: this is live evidence, not a backtest. Skill above 0% means smaller errors than repeating the last known day.
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What the data says for NO1
Computed from published ENTSO-E data. Capture rate: the output-weighted average price divided by the plain average price (1 = earns the average). Battery: a 1 MW / 1 MWh battery doing one cycle a day; with hindsight, and with hours chosen from our next-day forecast.
Research for this zone is being computed.
Forecast accuracy
Walk-forward backtest since 2022: each model is refitted every quarter on data that was public at the time, then scored on the following months. Lower error is better; skill above 0% means fewer errors than repeating the last known day.
| Model | Mean abs. error | Skill vs persistence | Quantile loss | In 80% range | Cheapest 3 h found | Hours |
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Live track record
Only forecasts frozen before the outcome existed. This is the evidence that cannot be fitted to the past.
No frozen forecast has reached its delivery hour yet. Scores appear the day after the first forecast.