Company · Investor
Day-ahead density brief
One zone, the quantile band, and the wind slope measured on the stored book. Written for a company or an investor.
Research and data
Nordic and Baltic electricity price research
This page is the Nordic and Baltic electricity price research: the Nord Pool day-ahead auction, stored and open to filter.
Research on these auctions using the prices stored here, and a filterable Europe study that saves hourly rows for a later training run.
This page does not take payment. The stored window is short, so the slopes are a screen of this data, not a multi-year study.
Live electricity evidence · LV
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Unverified archive: the static research below was shipped with the site and is not checked against the live backend.
Figures a search can read
These figures come from the stored auctions between 2026-08-01 and 2026-10-04.
- SE3: correlation -0.51 between the hourly price and local wind speed.
- DK2: correlation -0.4 between the hourly price and local wind speed.
- GER: correlation -0.39 between the hourly price and local wind speed.
- DK1: correlation -0.34 between the hourly price and local wind speed.
- EE: correlation -0.34 between the hourly price and local wind speed.
- FI: correlation -0.31 between the hourly price and local wind speed.
Latvia minus Finland averaged 43.2 EUR/MWh. Estonia minus Latvia averaged -25.6 EUR/MWh.
On 705 earlier Baltic and Nordic day-ahead windows, persistence MAE is 33.7 EUR/MWh. The LSTM is 36.8 and the transformer is 37.5. Persistence stays the published accuracy figure.
Questions this research answers
+Does local wind move the day-ahead price?
In this stored window the strongest listed correlations are SE3 -0.51 and DK2 -0.4. Latvia is -0.27. The wind figure is local speed in the same hour. It is not generation, and it is not the forecast known before the auction.
+Which price model is closer on the earlier days?
On 705 earlier Baltic and Nordic windows, persistence MAE is 33.7 EUR/MWh. The LSTM is 36.8 and the transformer is 37.5. Persistence stays the published accuracy figure.
+Can a company commission this research?
Yes. A written brief can use the same stored auctions. The public price pages stay free.
Click a name in the legend to hide or show that series; use All or Invert to change them together. Drag the slider or scroll inside the chart to zoom; use the legend to show or hide series.
Europe auction study
Baltic and Nordic day-ahead prices sit beside Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, France, Austria and Belgium, and beside the Nord Pool system price. The character transformer tags the stored headlines. The two price networks are scored on earlier Baltic and Nordic days. Hourly rows are saved in the database for a later training run.
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Research
Research is coming soon. If you have something in mind, please contact me.
Contact meWhat this book shows
Each bar is the correlation of the hourly auction price with local wind speed or temperature in the same hour. This is not wind generation, and it is not the forecast known before the auction. Hydro reservoirs are not in this store yet.
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Briefs you can commission
Examples of what this research can be used for. Filter by who the work is for.
Investor · Company
Baltic cable spread
Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia against Finland and southern Sweden, with the hours they diverge.
Investor
European energy share screen
The listed energy names, the five investing screens, and a written note for an investor.
Company
Client data desk
A CSV from the client, summarised and charted, before any prose is written.
Needs data we do not store yet
Nordic reservoir brief
Weekly hydro reservoirs, a slow driver of Nordic prices. This brief waits until that series is in the store.
On the site
Public price desk
Today's auction, the lab and this research page. Already on the site.
Pricing is agreed with you before any work starts: tell me about your case and you get a written quote with the scope and the price.
Contact meAsk for a brief