For investors
What the forecasts are worth
Accuracy is only interesting if it earns money. This page turns the forecasts into euros: a battery that plans its day on our forecast and is paid at the real auction price, compared with knowing the prices in advance and with simply repeating yesterday.
Paper-trading battery
A 1 MW / 2 MWh battery that every day picks its charge and discharge hours from the forecast frozen before the auction, settled at the real auction prices. It cannot be re-run with hindsight: each day is recorded once.
…
One cycle a day, 88% round trip, no fees or degradation: a fair comparison of forecasts, not a revenue promise.
Two paper batteries: middle forecast or the range
Both batteries trade the same frozen forecasts every day. One plans on the middle forecast; the other on the cautious ends of the range and stays idle when the cautious spread does not pay.
- Plans on the middle forecast · Share of perfect foresight
- –
- Plans on the middle forecast · Per MW and year
- –
- Plans on the range · Share of perfect foresight
- –
- Plans on the range · Per MW and year
- –
Caution 0 is the middle-forecast battery. More caution means fewer losing days and smaller bad days, at some cost in revenue: a choice of risk appetite, not a free gain.
Loading the figures…