Sähköverkko ja puhdas energia
Renewable project valuation and PPA pricing
What is a wind or solar MWh worth over a contract's life? Capture rates fall as more of the same technology is built; this prices that in, together with shape risk and negative-price exposure.
Calculating…
Pay-as-produced = baseload price × average capture over the tenor (discount-weighted). Under a baseload PPA the producer sells a flat block, buys shortfalls and sells surpluses at spot, so it nets the pay-as-produced value less a volume-risk premium. P10-P90 replays each historical year's hourly pattern at the chosen price level.
Capture model across all zones
Each point is one zone and year. Fitted with an intercept per zone and one common slope, so the slope is learned from how capture changed as each zone grew.
Calculating…
Screening estimates from published market data, not investment advice. History is retrospective; forward figures follow the stated assumptions.